The increasing temperature due to global warming has caused farmers to lose their crops. This has been occurring for over 25 years.
David Lobell of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore and Christopher Field of the Carnegie Institution in Stanford are two ecologists in California that have designed a statistical model. This model combines "worldwide temperature, rainfall, and yield data from 1961 through 2002 for the world's six most planted crops--barley, corn, rice, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat" (5).
During these four decades total crop yields were almost double. However Lobell and Field explained that as global temperatures were rising in the 1980's, the excess heat slowed down the growth of the crops. In 2002, approximately 40 million tons of barley, corn, and wheat were being lost each year. Due to this problem the price of crops has gone up.
Carbon dioxide a primary cause of global warming, is having the opposite effect on crops. Rising levels of carbon dioxide increase crop yields. Lobell and Field believe that the crop "yield gains from higher carbon dioxide levels were roughly equal to the losses from heat" (5). In the future what will happen is that the positive impact of climate change on vegetation production might reverse (5, 6). Climate changes occur in cycles (5). For the next couple of decades we are in good shape (5, 6).
7 comments:
I learned that CO2 will increae crop yield but I did not realize that this increase in crops will only last for a few more decades. After these good decades for farmers pass, how will the average amount of crops produced every year be changed? Approximately how much will it decrease?
It is interesting how the losses and gains balance out. Due to the positive impact global warming has on increased rainfall and temperature, I wonder if the two factors will always balance out for a limited impact on crop yield.
Could this change affect the food chain?
It seems to me that the problems with the increase in temperature will eventually outweigh the advantages of excess carbon dioxide. Oh well.
Yes Charlie, this change will affect the food chain because the population keeps growing, and therefor there are more mouths to feed but not enough crops.
Well Katy one of sources said that climate change goes in a cycle, so right now crop yield is increasing but after these decades it will decrease, I have not yet found the approximate amount though.
Do you think that less people will be farming a few years from now because they will not want to invest their money into crops that are more apt to fail?
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